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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 3 at the 58

Carolina Panthers 0 – San Francisco 49ers 7

What Actually Happened

(3:50) 6-S.Martin punts 50 yards to SF 8, Center-44-J.Jansen, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.35 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.05 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 58, worth -3.31 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.99 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 18, worth -0.99 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.64 EP