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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 13 at the 30

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Cleveland Browns 14

What Actually Happened

(11:33) 8-D.Carlson 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.

The Three Options

GO +0.44 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.97 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 30, worth -0.97 EP
KICK +1.36 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 82% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.02 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 40, worth -1.63 EP
PUNT +0.18 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth +0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model