CLE @ LV — 4th & Data

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HC Kevin Stefanski

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HC Pete Carroll

Sunday 2025-11-23 · 16:05 Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas US 🏟 Dome Spread 3.0 O/U 35.5

Win Probability

CLE

28.5%

71.5%

🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

QB edge to LV: Geno Smith (LV) -0.100 vs Shedeur Sanders (CLE) -0.800 EPA/dropback (CLE starting Shedeur Sanders in place of Dillon Gabriel)
CLE offense: -0.200 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
LV offense: -0.196 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
LV defense: +0.057 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
CLE defense: -0.111 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
Indoors — weather neutralised

Predicted Final Score

CLE 21

–

LV 24

Projected margin: LV by 3 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 12

CLE

Alex Wright DE Out Quadricep

Jamari Thrash WR Out Foot

Dillon Gabriel QB Out Concussion

Jack Conklin T Questionable Knee

LV

No players on the report.

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 12 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CLE 24

–

LV 10

Prediction missed by 17 pts on margin, 11 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

Q1 08:29 TD CLE (8:29) (Shotgun) 74-T.Jenkins reported in as eligible. Direct snap to 10-Q.Judkins. 10-Q.Judkins right guard for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ** Injury Update: LV-11-J.Chinn has returned to the game. CLE 6 – LV 0
Q1 00:52 TD CLE (:52) (Shotgun) 74-T.Jenkins reported in as eligible. Direct snap to 10-Q.Judkins. 10-Q.Judkins left guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 13 – LV 0
Q2 09:16 FG LV (9:16) 8-D.Carlson 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole. CLE 14 – LV 3
Q4 12:13 FG CLE (12:13) 25-A.Szmyt 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez. CLE 17 – LV 3
Q4 08:29 TD CLE (8:29) (Shotgun) 12-S.Sanders pass short right to 22-D.Sampson for 66 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 23 – LV 3
Q4 05:16 TD LV (5:16) 7-G.Smith pass short right to 2-A.Jeanty for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 24 – LV 9

Fourth-Down Decisions

Q1 CLE 4th & 2 at the 60

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.78 EP

p(convert) 58%

(12:59) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 46 yards to LV 14, Center-50-R.Sunahara, fair catch by 81-A.Bachman.
Q1 LV 4th & 18 at the 83

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 25%

(9:27) 6-A.Cole punts 54 yards to CLE 29, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 84-G.Larvadain to LV 27 for 44 yards (6-A.Cole). PENALTY on LV-6-A.Cole, Tripping, 14 yards, enforced at LV 27.
Q1 LV 4th & 19 at the 74

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 23%

(7:06) 6-A.Cole punts 34 yards to CLE 40, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, downed by LV-50-J.Bobenmoyer.
Q1 CLE 4th & 16 at the 66

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 26%

(5:28) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 40 yards to LV 26, Center-50-R.Sunahara, fair catch by 81-A.Bachman.
Q1 LV 4th & 4 at the 68

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 46%

(3:17) 6-A.Cole punts 41 yards to CLE 27, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, fair catch by 84-G.Larvadain.
Q2 LV 4th & 13 at the 30

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 24% p(FG) 82%

(11:33) 8-D.Carlson 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.
Q2 LV 4th & 7 at the 23

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 31% p(FG) 90%

(9:16) 8-D.Carlson 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.
Q2 CLE 4th & 11 at the 60

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 30%

(7:40) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 39 yards to LV 21, Center-50-R.Sunahara, fair catch by 81-A.Bachman.
Q2 LV 4th & 10 at the 76

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 32%

(2:30) 6-A.Cole punts 56 yards to CLE 20, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 84-G.Larvadain pushed ob at CLE 28 for 8 yards (44-T.Eichenberg).
Q2 CLE 4th & 3 at the 65

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 52%

(1:47) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 43 yards to LV 22, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 81-A.Bachman to LV 23 for 1 yard (9-G.Delpit; 5-R.Jenkins).
Q3 LV 4th & 4 at the 43

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 42% p(FG) 55%

(11:03) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith sacked at LV 48 for -9 yards (sack split by 99-C.Thomas and 96-M.Collins).
Q3 CLE 4th & 8 at the 46

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 34% p(FG) 47%

(9:14) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 46 yards to end zone, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Touchback.
Q3 LV 4th & 6 at the 76

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 40%

(8:18) 6-A.Cole punts 53 yards to CLE 23, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 84-G.Larvadain to CLE 28 for 5 yards (44-T.Eichenberg). PENALTY on CLE-26-M.Harden, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CLE 23.
Q3 CLE 4th & 6 at the 70

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 41%

(3:46) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 44 yards to LV 26, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 81-A.Bachman pushed ob at LV 35 for 9 yards (41-C.Edmonds).
Q3 LV 4th & 3 at the 22

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 45% p(FG) 91%

(:58) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass incomplete deep right to 1-T.Tucker.
Q4 LV 4th & 11 at the 69

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 30%

(9:27) 6-A.Cole punts 36 yards to CLE 33, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, out of bounds.
Q4 LV 4th & 2 at the 5

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 49% p(FG) 98%

(5:16) 7-G.Smith pass short right to 2-A.Jeanty for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 CLE 4th & 10 at the 72 late-game

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 33%

(4:13) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 41 yards to LV 31, Center-50-R.Sunahara, fair catch by 81-A.Bachman.
Q4 CLE 4th & 2 at the 29 late-game

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.82 EP

p(convert) 54% p(FG) 84%

(:59) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 19 yards to LV 10, Center-50-R.Sunahara, out of bounds.