Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 11 at the 60

Cleveland Browns 14 – Las Vegas Raiders 3

(7:40) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 39 yards to LV 21, Center-50-R.Sunahara, fair catch by 81-A.Bachman.

The Three Options

GO -1.68 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.43 EP
70% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 60, worth -3.48 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model