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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 10 at the 76

Las Vegas Raiders 3 – Cleveland Browns 14

What Actually Happened

(2:30) 6-A.Cole punts 56 yards to CLE 20, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 84-G.Larvadain pushed ob at CLE 28 for 8 yards (44-T.Eichenberg).

The Three Options

GO -2.21 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.81 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 76, worth -4.11 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.33 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 34, worth -1.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model