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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 8 at the 46

Cleveland Browns 14 – Las Vegas Raiders 3

What Actually Happened

(9:14) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 46 yards to end zone, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.64 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.40 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 46, worth -2.69 EP
KICK -0.82 EP
  • 47% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.49 EP
  • 53% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.85 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 13, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model