Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 6 at the 76

Las Vegas Raiders 3 – Cleveland Browns 14

What Actually Happened

(8:18) 6-A.Cole punts 53 yards to CLE 23, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 84-G.Larvadain to CLE 28 for 5 yards (44-T.Eichenberg). PENALTY on CLE-26-M.Harden, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CLE 23.

The Three Options

GO -2.04 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.48 EP
60% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 76, worth -4.38 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model