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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 6 at the 70

Cleveland Browns 14 – Las Vegas Raiders 3

What Actually Happened

(3:46) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 44 yards to LV 26, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 81-A.Bachman pushed ob at LV 35 for 9 yards (41-C.Edmonds).

The Three Options

GO -1.61 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.78 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 70, worth -3.98 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.24 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 28, worth -1.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model