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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 3 at the 22

Las Vegas Raiders 3 – Cleveland Browns 14

What Actually Happened

(:58) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass incomplete deep right to 1-T.Tucker.

The Three Options

GO +1.76 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.80 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 22, worth -0.68 EP
KICK +1.50 EP
  • 91% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.78 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 32, worth -1.36 EP
PUNT +0.08 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth +0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model