Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 11 at the 69

Las Vegas Raiders 3 – Cleveland Browns 17

(9:27) 6-A.Cole punts 36 yards to CLE 33, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.05 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.09 EP
70% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 69, worth -3.82 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model