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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 2 at the 5

Las Vegas Raiders 3 – Cleveland Browns 24

What Actually Happened

(5:16) 7-G.Smith pass short right to 2-A.Jeanty for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +2.88 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.01 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 5, worth -0.16 EP
KICK +1.70 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.73 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 21, worth -0.67 EP
PUNT -0.26 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model