4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 10 at the 72

Cleveland Browns 24 – Las Vegas Raiders 10

What Actually Happened

(4:13) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 41 yards to LV 31, Center-50-R.Sunahara, fair catch by 81-A.Bachman.

The Three Options

GO -2.01 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.66 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 72, worth -3.84 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -0.89 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 30, worth -0.89 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model