Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 19 at the 74

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Cleveland Browns 7

(7:06) 6-A.Cole punts 34 yards to CLE 40, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, downed by LV-50-J.Bobenmoyer.

The Three Options

GO -2.58 EP

23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.60 EP
77% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 74, worth -4.15 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model