Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 16 at the 66

Cleveland Browns 7 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

(5:28) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 40 yards to LV 26, Center-50-R.Sunahara, fair catch by 81-A.Bachman.

The Three Options

GO -2.19 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.49 EP
74% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 66, worth -3.83 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model