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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 1 at the 17

Minnesota Vikings 3 – Green Bay Packers 7

What Actually Happened

(10:31) 27-J.Mason up the middle to GB 18 for -1 yards (55-K.Enagbare).

The Three Options

GO +2.74 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.66 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 17, worth -1.06 EP
KICK +1.09 EP
  • 94% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.27 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 27, worth -1.54 EP
PUNT -0.49 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model