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Minnesota Vikings

HC Kevin O'Connell
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Green Bay Packers

HC Matt LaFleur
Sunday 2025-11-23 · 13:00 Lambeau Field, Green Bay US ☀️ Clear Spread 6.5 O/U 41.5

Win Probability

MIN
22.9%
GB
77.1%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to GB: Jordan Love (GB) +0.195 vs J.J. McCarthy (MIN) -0.368 EPA/dropback
  • GB offense: +0.130 EPA/play over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • MIN offense: -0.047 EPA/play over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • GB defense: +0.032 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (20th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

MIN 18
–
GB 26
Projected margin: GB by 8 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 12

MIN

Ryan Kelly C Questionable Concussion
Jonathan Greenard LB Questionable Shoulder

GB

Nate Hobbs CB Out Knee
Jayden Reed WR Out Foot
Quay Walker LB Doubtful Neck
Josh Jacobs RB Questionable Knee
Dontayvion Wicks WR Questionable Calf
Karl Brooks DT Questionable Ankle
Lukas Van Ness DE Questionable Foot
Savion Williams WR Questionable Foot
Matthew Golden WR Questionable Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 12 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

MIN 6
–
GB 23

Prediction missed by 9 pts on margin, 15 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 12:58 FG MIN (12:58) 16-W.Reichard 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright. MIN 3 – GB 0
  • Q1 09:19 TD GB (9:19) 70-D.Kinnard reported in as eligible. 23-E.Wilson up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 3 – GB 6
  • Q2 02:28 FG GB (2:28) 17-B.McManus 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan. MIN 3 – GB 10
  • Q2 00:15 FG MIN (:15) 16-W.Reichard 59 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright. MIN 6 – GB 10
  • Q3 10:58 TD GB (10:58) 23-E.Wilson right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 6 – GB 16
  • Q4 12:17 FG GB (12:17) 17-B.McManus 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan. MIN 6 – GB 20
  • Q4 07:40 FG GB (7:40) 17-B.McManus 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan. MIN 6 – GB 23

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 10 at the 34
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 70%

    (12:58) 16-W.Reichard 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright.

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 4 at the 55
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.55 EP
    p(convert) 48%

    (5:12) 17-R.Wright punts 53 yards to GB 2, Center-42-A.DePaola, out of bounds.

  • Q1 GB 4th & 19 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (1:16) 19-D.Whelan punts 63 yards to MIN 13, Center-42-M.Orzech. 4-M.Price to MIN 24 for 11 yards (39-Z.Anderson; 59-T.Hopper).

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 1 at the 17
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 94%

    (10:31) 27-J.Mason up the middle to GB 18 for -1 yards (55-K.Enagbare).

  • Q2 GB 4th & 5 at the 14
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.48 EP
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 95%

    (2:28) 17-B.McManus 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 11 at the 41
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 52%

    (:15) 16-W.Reichard 59 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright.

  • Q3 GB 4th & 15 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 28%

    (11:49) 19-D.Whelan punts 42 yards to MIN 8, Center-42-M.Orzech. 4-M.Price MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by GB-39-Z.Anderson at MIN 5.

  • Q3 MIN 4th & 8 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (8:55) 17-R.Wright punts 56 yards to GB 8, Center-42-A.DePaola, out of bounds.

  • Q3 GB 4th & 3 at the 63
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.40 EP
    p(convert) 57%

    (4:29) 19-D.Whelan punts 50 yards to MIN 13, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 4-M.Price.

  • Q4 GB 4th & 4 at the 12
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.78 EP
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 96%

    (12:17) 17-B.McManus 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

  • Q4 GB 4th & 2 at the 21
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.11 EP
    p(convert) 58% p(FG) 90%

    (7:40) 17-B.McManus 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

  • Q4 GB 4th & 9 at the 39
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.70 EP
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 57%

    (5:53) 19-D.Whelan punts 32 yards to MIN 7, Center-42-M.Orzech, out of bounds.