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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 10 at the 34

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(12:58) 16-W.Reichard 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright.

The Three Options

GO -0.20 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.27 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 34, worth -2.23 EP
KICK -0.19 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +0.99 EP
  • 30% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 44, worth -2.90 EP
PUNT -0.60 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model