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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 15 at the 50

Green Bay Packers 10 – Minnesota Vikings 6

What Actually Happened

(11:49) 19-D.Whelan punts 42 yards to MIN 8, Center-42-M.Orzech. 4-M.Price MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by GB-39-Z.Anderson at MIN 5.

The Three Options

GO -0.83 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.81 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 50, worth -2.78 EP
KICK -1.51 EP
  • 28% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.69 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 49, worth -2.78 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 14, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model