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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 4 at the 55

Minnesota Vikings 3 – Green Bay Packers 7

What Actually Happened

(5:12) 17-R.Wright punts 53 yards to GB 2, Center-42-A.DePaola, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.43 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.50 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 55, worth -3.19 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.98 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 16, worth -0.98 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.55 EP