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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 19 at the 76

Green Bay Packers 7 – Minnesota Vikings 3

What Actually Happened

(1:16) 19-D.Whelan punts 63 yards to MIN 13, Center-42-M.Orzech. 4-M.Price to MIN 24 for 11 yards (39-Z.Anderson; 59-T.Hopper).

The Three Options

GO -2.22 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.48 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 76, worth -4.14 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 34, worth -1.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model