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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 2 at the 23

New England Patriots 14 – Cincinnati Bengals 10

What Actually Happened

(:33) 36-A.Borregales 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-17-B.Baringer.

The Three Options

GO +2.15 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +3.70 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 23, worth -0.39 EP
KICK +1.92 EP
What Happened
  • 89% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.26 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 33, worth -0.81 EP
PUNT -0.08 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model