4th & Data
EN ES
← Home
NE Away

New England Patriots

HC Mike Vrabel
@
CIN Home

Cincinnati Bengals

HC Zac Taylor
Sunday 2025-11-23 · 13:00 Paycor Stadium, Cincinnati US ☀️ Clear Spread -7.5 O/U 50.5

Win Probability

NE
74.1%
CIN
25.9%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NE offense: +0.146 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • CIN defense: +0.247 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • QB edge to NE: Joe Flacco (CIN) -0.067 vs Drake Maye (NE) +0.216 EPA/dropback
  • CIN offense: -0.040 EPA/play over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • NE defense: -0.093 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • NE on 3 more days rest than CIN

Predicted Final Score

NE 28
–
CIN 19
Projected margin: NE by 9 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 12

NE

Jahlani Tavai LB Out Not injury related - personal matter
Harold Landry III LB Questionable Knee
Rhamondre Stevenson RB Questionable Toe

CIN

Trey Hendrickson DE Out Hip
Joe Burrow QB Out Toe
Cameron Sample DE Out Oblique
Cam Taylor-Britt CB Out Foot
Samaje Perine RB Doubtful Ankle
Daijahn Anthony S Doubtful Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 12 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NE 26
–
CIN 20

Prediction missed by 3 pts on margin, 1 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 06:41 FG CIN (6:41) 2-E.McPherson 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-W.Wagner, Holder-8-R.Rehkow. NE 0 – CIN 3
  • Q2 14:28 TD CIN (14:28) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass deep middle intended for 85-H.Henry INTERCEPTED by 22-G.Stone at NE 32. 22-G.Stone for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 0 – CIN 9
  • Q2 09:43 TD NE (9:43) 10-D.Maye pass deep left to 85-H.Henry for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 6 – CIN 10
  • Q2 07:51 TD NE (7:51) 16-J.Flacco pass short right intended for 25-T.Brooks INTERCEPTED by 25-M.Jones at CIN 33. 25-M.Jones for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 13 – CIN 10
  • Q2 00:33 FG NE (:33) 36-A.Borregales 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-17-B.Baringer. NE 17 – CIN 10
  • Q2 00:04 FG CIN (:04) 2-E.McPherson 63 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-W.Wagner, Holder-8-R.Rehkow. NE 17 – CIN 13
  • Q3 01:09 FG NE (1:09) 36-A.Borregales 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-17-B.Baringer. NE 20 – CIN 13
  • Q4 05:58 FG NE (5:58) 36-A.Borregales 19 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-17-B.Baringer. NE 23 – CIN 13
  • Q4 04:45 TD CIN (4:45) (Shotgun) 16-J.Flacco pass deep left to 82-M.Tinsley for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 23 – CIN 19
  • Q4 01:56 FG NE (1:56) 36-A.Borregales 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-17-B.Baringer. NE 26 – CIN 20

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NE 4th & 4 at the 59
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.66 EP
    p(convert) 55%

    (12:01) 17-B.Baringer punts 53 yards to CIN 6, Center-47-J.Ashby. 15-C.Jones pushed ob at CIN 19 for 13 yards (22-C.Woods).

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 3 at the 35
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.55 EP
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 69%

    (6:41) 2-E.McPherson 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-W.Wagner, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.

  • Q1 NE 4th & 6 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (5:38) 17-B.Baringer punts 45 yards to CIN 23, Center-47-J.Ashby. 15-C.Jones to CIN 24 for 1 yard (15-M.Mapu).

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 15 at the 45
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 43%

    (:04) 8-R.Rehkow punts 35 yards to NE 10, Center-46-W.Wagner, fair catch by 25-M.Jones.

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 6 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 31%

    (4:26) 8-R.Rehkow punts 40 yards to NE 10, Center-46-W.Wagner. 25-M.Jones to NE 10 for no gain (26-T.Anderson).

  • Q2 NE 4th & 2 at the 23
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 62% p(FG) 89%

    (:33) 36-A.Borregales 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-17-B.Baringer.

  • Q3 CIN 4th & 4 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (13:35) 8-R.Rehkow punts 53 yards to NE 10, Center-46-W.Wagner, downed by CIN-38-D.Ivey.

  • Q3 NE 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 99%

    (7:54) (Shotgun) 38-R.Stevenson left guard to CIN 1 for no gain (99-M.Murphy; 58-J.Ossai).

  • Q3 CIN 4th & 4 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (5:05) 8-R.Rehkow punts 39 yards to NE 24, Center-46-W.Wagner, out of bounds.

  • Q3 NE 4th & 2 at the 27
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.65 EP
    p(convert) 62% p(FG) 84%

    (1:09) 36-A.Borregales 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-17-B.Baringer.

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 6 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (13:10) 8-R.Rehkow punts 60 yards to end zone, Center-46-W.Wagner, Touchback.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +2.29 EP
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 99%

    (5:58) 36-A.Borregales 19 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-17-B.Baringer.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 7 at the 33 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 74%

    (1:56) 36-A.Borregales 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-17-B.Baringer.

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 1 at the 63 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70%

    (1:14) (Shotgun) 30-C.Brown right guard to CIN 41 for 4 yards (31-C.Woodson; 7-C.Davis).

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 8 at the 57 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (:51) (Shotgun) 16-J.Flacco pass short right to 82-M.Tinsley to NE 45 for 12 yards (25-M.Jones) [21-J.Hawkins]. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was inbounds ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 16-J.Flacco pass short right to 82-M.Tinsley ran ob at NE 45 for 12 yards [21-J.Hawkins].

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 10 at the 26 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.83 EP
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 86%

    (:23) (Shotgun) 16-J.Flacco pass incomplete deep left to 88-M.Gesicki (25-M.Jones) [44-K.Chaisson].