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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 4 at the 59

New England Patriots 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(12:01) 17-B.Baringer punts 53 yards to CIN 6, Center-47-J.Ashby. 15-C.Jones pushed ob at CIN 19 for 13 yards (22-C.Woods).

The Three Options

GO -0.46 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.03 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 59, worth -3.51 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -1.11 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 18, worth -1.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.66 EP