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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 1 at the 1

New England Patriots 17 – Cincinnati Bengals 13

What Actually Happened

(7:54) (Shotgun) 38-R.Stevenson left guard to CIN 1 for no gain (99-M.Murphy; 58-J.Ossai).

The Three Options

GO +3.38 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +4.93 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 1, worth -0.22 EP
KICK +0.95 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +0.98 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 21, worth -1.33 EP
PUNT -0.74 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.74 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model