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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 2 at the 27

New England Patriots 17 – Cincinnati Bengals 13

What Actually Happened

(1:09) 36-A.Borregales 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-17-B.Baringer.

The Three Options

GO +1.78 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.11 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 27, worth -2.09 EP
KICK +0.13 EP
What Happened
  • 84% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +0.68 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 37, worth -2.81 EP
PUNT -1.16 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -1.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.65 EP