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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 1 at the 1

New England Patriots 20 – Cincinnati Bengals 13

What Actually Happened

(5:58) 36-A.Borregales 19 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-17-B.Baringer.

The Three Options

GO +3.89 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.59 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 1, worth -0.04 EP
KICK +1.60 EP
What Happened
  • 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 21, worth -0.86 EP
PUNT -0.53 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +2.29 EP