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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 1 at the 63

Cincinnati Bengals 20 – New England Patriots 26

What Actually Happened

(1:14) (Shotgun) 30-C.Brown right guard to CIN 41 for 4 yards (31-C.Woodson; 7-C.Davis).

The Three Options

GO -0.27 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +0.54 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 63, worth -2.21 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.58 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 21, worth -0.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model