Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 8 at the 57

Cincinnati Bengals 20 – New England Patriots 26

What Actually Happened

(:51) (Shotgun) 16-J.Flacco pass short right to 82-M.Tinsley to NE 45 for 12 yards (25-M.Jones) [21-J.Hawkins]. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was inbounds ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 16-J.Flacco pass short right to 82-M.Tinsley ran ob at NE 45 for 12 yards [21-J.Hawkins].

The Three Options

GO -0.43 EP

What Happened

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +0.76 EP
64% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 57, worth -1.09 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model