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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 10 at the 26

Cincinnati Bengals 20 – New England Patriots 26

What Actually Happened

(:23) (Shotgun) 16-J.Flacco pass incomplete deep left to 88-M.Gesicki (25-M.Jones) [44-K.Chaisson].

The Three Options

GO +0.47 EP
What Happened
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +1.95 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 26, worth -0.13 EP
KICK +2.31 EP
Model's Pick
  • 86% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.75 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 36, worth -0.33 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.83 EP