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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 6 at the 68

New England Patriots 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 3

What Actually Happened

(5:38) 17-B.Baringer punts 45 yards to CIN 23, Center-47-J.Ashby. 15-C.Jones to CIN 24 for 1 yard (15-M.Mapu).

The Three Options

GO -1.26 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.59 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 68, worth -4.04 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.32 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 26, worth -1.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model