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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 1 at the 79

New York Giants 17 – Detroit Lions 7

What Actually Happened

(4:10) 12-J.Gillan punts 40 yards to DET 39, Center-59-C.Kreiter, downed by NYG-46-Z.Barnes.

The Three Options

GO -0.74 EP
Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 78, worth +0.55 EP
  • 26% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 79, worth -4.42 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -1.66 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 36, worth -1.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.92 EP