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New York Giants

HC Brian Daboll
@
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Detroit Lions

HC Dan Campbell
Sunday 2025-11-23 · 13:00 Ford Field, Detroit US 🏟 Dome Spread 14.0 O/U 50.5

Win Probability

NYG
33.1%
DET
66.9%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to DET: Jared Goff (DET) +0.153 vs Jameis Winston (NYG) -0.042 EPA/dropback
  • NYG offense: +0.054 EPA/play over its last 8 games (13th in the league)
  • DET offense: +0.064 EPA/play over its last 8 games (11th in the league)
  • NYG defense: +0.143 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • DET defense: -0.038 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (9th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

NYG 22
–
DET 27
Projected margin: DET by 5 Projected total: 49

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 12

NYG

Paulson Adebo CB Out Knee
Kayvon Thibodeaux LB Out Shoulder
Thomas Fidone II TE Out Foot
Jaxson Dart QB Out Concussion
Eric Gray RB Questionable Knee
Deonte Banks CB Questionable Hip
Tyler Nubin S Questionable Neck

DET

Marcus Davenport DE Out Shoulder
Kerby Joseph S Out Knee
Joshua Paschal DE Out Back
Terrion Arnold CB Out Concussion
Miles Frazier G Out Knee
Taylor Decker T Questionable Shoulder
Graham Glasgow C Questionable Knee
D.J. Reed CB Questionable Hamstring
Khalil Dorsey CB Questionable Wrist
Penei Sewell T Questionable Ankle
Sione Vaki RB Questionable Ankle
Isaac TeSlaa WR Questionable Oblique
Tate Ratledge G Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 12 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NYG 27
–
DET 34

Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 12 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 13:05 TD NYG (13:05) 19-J.Winston pass deep left to 17-W.Robinson for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN [32-B.Branch]. NYG 6 – DET 0
  • Q1 00:03 FG NYG (:03) 37-Y.Koo 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-J.Gillan. NYG 10 – DET 0
  • Q2 11:48 TD DET (11:48) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 14-A.St. Brown for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 10 – DET 6
  • Q2 08:27 TD NYG (8:27) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass short middle to 89-I.Hodgins for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 16 – DET 7
  • Q2 02:21 TD DET (2:21) (No Huddle) 70-D.Skipper reported in as eligible. 16-J.Goff pass short right to 0-J.Gibbs for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 17 – DET 13
  • Q2 00:42 FG NYG (:42) 37-Y.Koo 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-J.Gillan. NYG 20 – DET 14
  • Q2 00:03 FG DET (:03) 39-J.Bates 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox. NYG 20 – DET 17
  • Q4 12:28 TD NYG (12:28) (Shotgun) 80-G.Olszewski pass short left to 19-J.Winston for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 26 – DET 17
  • Q4 11:01 TD DET (11:01) 0-J.Gibbs right tackle for 49 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 27 – DET 23
  • Q4 00:33 FG DET (:33) 39-J.Bates 59 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox. NYG 27 – DET 27
  • Q5 09:53 TD DET (9:53) 0-J.Gibbs right tackle for 69 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 27 – DET 33

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DET 4th & 19 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 42%

    (8:02) 3-J.Fox punts 40 yards to NYG 8, Center-49-H.Hatten, fair catch by 80-G.Olszewski.

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 9 at the 91
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (6:31) 12-J.Gillan punts 44 yards to DET 47, Center-59-C.Kreiter, out of bounds.

  • Q1 DET 4th & 9 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 32%

    (5:10) 3-J.Fox punts 42 yards to NYG 10, Center-49-H.Hatten, fair catch by 80-G.Olszewski.

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.27 EP
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 99%

    (:03) 37-Y.Koo 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-J.Gillan.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 17 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (6:21) 3-J.Fox punts 46 yards to NYG 22, Center-49-H.Hatten. 80-G.Olszewski to NYG 26 for 4 yards (82-R.Dwelley). PENALTY on NYG-46-Z.Barnes, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NYG 22.

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 1 at the 79
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.92 EP
    p(convert) 74%

    (4:10) 12-J.Gillan punts 40 yards to DET 39, Center-59-C.Kreiter, downed by NYG-46-Z.Barnes.

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 7 at the 26
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 87%

    (:42) 37-Y.Koo 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-J.Gillan.

  • Q3 DET 4th & 8 at the 43
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 55%

    (10:56) 3-J.Fox punts 36 yards to NYG 7, Center-49-H.Hatten, downed by DET-25-J.Saylors.

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 9 at the 46
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 47%

    (7:23) 12-J.Gillan punts 36 yards to DET 10, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 11-K.Raymond.

  • Q4 DET 4th & 9 at the 44
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 52%

    (9:54) 3-J.Fox punts 36 yards to NYG 8, Center-49-H.Hatten, fair catch by 80-G.Olszewski.

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 6 at the 6 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 98%

    (2:59) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass incomplete short middle to 84-T.Johnson (23-R.Ya-Sin).

  • Q4 DET 4th & 10 at the 41 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 60%

    (:33) 39-J.Bates 59 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.