4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 7 at the 26

New York Giants 17 – Detroit Lions 14

What Actually Happened

(:42) 37-Y.Koo 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-J.Gillan.

The Three Options

GO +1.20 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.42 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 26, worth -0.66 EP
KICK +1.65 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 87% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 36, worth -1.16 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model