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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 9 at the 46

New York Giants 20 – Detroit Lions 17

What Actually Happened

(7:23) 12-J.Gillan punts 36 yards to DET 10, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 11-K.Raymond.

The Three Options

GO -0.47 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.58 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 46, worth -2.66 EP
KICK -0.79 EP
  • 47% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.52 EP
  • 53% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 49, worth -2.84 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 13, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model