4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 10 at the 41

Detroit Lions 24 – New York Giants 27

What Actually Happened

(:33) 39-J.Bates 59 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.

The Three Options

GO +0.48 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +1.87 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 41, worth -0.27 EP
KICK +1.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.82 EP
  • 40% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 49, worth -0.30 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 12, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model