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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 19 at the 48

Detroit Lions 0 – New York Giants 7

What Actually Happened

(8:02) 3-J.Fox punts 40 yards to NYG 8, Center-49-H.Hatten, fair catch by 80-G.Olszewski.

The Three Options

GO -0.62 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.27 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 48, worth -2.38 EP
KICK -0.58 EP
  • 42% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 58% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 49, worth -2.47 EP
PUNT +0.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 14, worth +0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model