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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 9 at the 91

New York Giants 7 – Detroit Lions 0

What Actually Happened

(6:31) 12-J.Gillan punts 44 yards to DET 47, Center-59-C.Kreiter, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -3.17 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 82, worth +0.24 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 91, worth -5.51 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (108 yards).

PUNT -3.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 48, worth -3.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model