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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 9 at the 52

Detroit Lions 0 – New York Giants 7

What Actually Happened

(5:10) 3-J.Fox punts 42 yards to NYG 10, Center-49-H.Hatten, fair catch by 80-G.Olszewski.

The Three Options

GO -0.36 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.30 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 52, worth -2.59 EP
KICK -1.07 EP
  • 32% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.97 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 49, worth -2.51 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 15, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model