4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 17 at the 87

Baltimore Ravens 0 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(10:45) 11-J.Stout punts 74 yards to NYJ 13, Center-46-N.Moore. 18-I.Williams to NYJ 21 for 8 yards (88-C.Kolar; 32-T.Simpson).

The Three Options

GO -3.00 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.51 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 87, worth -4.92 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (104 yards).

PUNT -2.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 45, worth -2.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model