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New York Jets

HC Aaron Glenn
@
BAL Home

Baltimore Ravens

HC John Harbaugh
Sunday 2025-11-23 · 13:00 M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore US ☀️ Clear Spread 14.0 O/U 44.5

Win Probability

NYJ
29.1%
BAL
70.9%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NYJ offense: -0.119 EPA/play over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • QB edge to BAL: Lamar Jackson (BAL) +0.174 vs Tyrod Taylor (NYJ) -0.025 EPA/dropback
  • BAL offense: -0.041 EPA/play over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • NYJ defense: +0.064 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • NYJ on 3 more days rest than BAL

Predicted Final Score

NYJ 20
–
BAL 26
Projected margin: BAL by 6 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 12

NYJ

Harrison Phillips DT Questionable Foot
Kene Nwangwu RB Questionable Hamstring
Marcelino McCrary-Ball LB Questionable Hamstring
Will McDonald IV DE Questionable Quadricep

BAL

Rashod Bateman WR Out Ankle
Keyon Martin CB Out Rib

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 12 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NYJ 10
–
BAL 23

Prediction missed by 7 pts on margin, 13 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 04:09 TD NYJ (4:09) (Shotgun) 2-T.Taylor pass short left to 3-J.Metchie for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 6 – BAL 0
  • Q2 01:39 FG BAL (1:39) 33-T.Loop 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout. NYJ 7 – BAL 3
  • Q3 08:54 TD BAL (8:54) 22-D.Henry right guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 7 – BAL 9
  • Q3 03:35 TD BAL (3:35) 22-D.Henry up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 7 – BAL 16
  • Q4 14:46 FG NYJ (14:46) 6-N.Folk 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara. NYJ 10 – BAL 17
  • Q4 09:39 FG BAL (9:39) 33-T.Loop 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout. NYJ 10 – BAL 20
  • Q4 00:45 FG BAL (:45) 33-T.Loop 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout. NYJ 10 – BAL 23

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 6 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 28%

    (14:09) 14-A.McNamara punts 35 yards to BAL 18, Center-42-T.Hennessy, out of bounds.

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 1 at the 73
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 73%

    (12:00) Direct snap to 89-M.Andrews. 89-M.Andrews up the middle to BAL 29 for 2 yards (91-J.Briggs; 44-J.Sherwood).

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 3 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55%

    (9:49) 11-J.Stout punts 56 yards to NYJ 8, Center-46-N.Moore. 18-I.Williams to NYJ 21 for 13 yards (27-T.Tampa).

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 10 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 42%

    (4:09) 14-A.McNamara punts 41 yards to BAL 6, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-32-I.Davis.

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 3 at the 87
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.46 EP
    p(convert) 58%

    (2:24) 11-J.Stout punts 49 yards to NYJ 38, Center-46-N.Moore. 18-I.Williams to NYJ 40 for 2 yards (27-T.Tampa).

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 8 at the 44
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 49%

    (14:20) 14-A.McNamara punts 29 yards to BAL 15, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 83-L.Wester.

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 17 at the 87
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (10:45) 11-J.Stout punts 74 yards to NYJ 13, Center-46-N.Moore. 18-I.Williams to NYJ 21 for 8 yards (88-C.Kolar; 32-T.Simpson).

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 4 at the 13
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.56 EP
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 96%

    (1:39) 33-T.Loop 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 10 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 42%

    (:33) 14-A.McNamara punts 47 yards to end zone, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Touchback.

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 2 at the 58
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 59%

    (6:42) (Shotgun) 2-T.Taylor pass incomplete short right to 3-J.Metchie.

  • Q3 BAL 4th & 2 at the 2
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 99%

    (3:35) 22-D.Henry up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 10 at the 24
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 89%

    (14:46) 6-N.Folk 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara.

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 8 at the 17
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 94%

    (9:39) 33-T.Loop 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 2 at the 72 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EP
    p(convert) 63%

    (3:19) 11-J.Stout punts 67 yards to NYJ 5, Center-46-N.Moore, out of bounds.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 14 at the 89 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.89 EP
    p(convert) 31%

    (1:47) (Shotgun) 2-T.Taylor pass incomplete deep left to 10-A.Lazard.

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 8 at the 9 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 98%

    (:45) 33-T.Loop 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.