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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 8 at the 17

Baltimore Ravens 17 – New York Jets 10

What Actually Happened

(9:39) 33-T.Loop 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.

The Three Options

GO +1.19 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.28 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 17, worth -0.81 EP
KICK +1.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.64 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 27, worth -1.20 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model