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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 14 at the 89

New York Jets 10 – Baltimore Ravens 20

What Actually Happened

(1:47) (Shotgun) 2-T.Taylor pass incomplete deep left to 10-A.Lazard.

The Three Options

GO -2.46 EP
What Happened
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +0.85 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 89, worth -3.96 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (106 yards).

PUNT -1.58 EP
Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 46, worth -1.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.89 EP