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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 10 at the 47

New York Jets 0 – Baltimore Ravens 0

What Actually Happened

(4:09) 14-A.McNamara punts 41 yards to BAL 6, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-32-I.Davis.

The Three Options

GO -0.78 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.48 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 47, worth -2.72 EP
KICK -1.02 EP
  • 42% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.53 EP
  • 58% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -2.84 EP
PUNT -0.24 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 13, worth -0.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model