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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 3 at the 87

Baltimore Ravens 0 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(2:24) 11-J.Stout punts 49 yards to NYJ 38, Center-46-N.Moore. 18-I.Williams to NYJ 40 for 2 yards (27-T.Tampa).

The Three Options

GO -1.71 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 84, worth +0.62 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 87, worth -4.92 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (104 yards).

PUNT -2.17 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 45, worth -2.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.46 EP