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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 3 at the 21

Los Angeles Rams 28 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7

What Actually Happened

(1:06) 92-H.Mevis 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-42-E.Evans.

The Three Options

GO +2.16 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.78 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.67 EP
KICK +1.63 EP
What Happened
  • 92% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 31, worth -1.18 EP
PUNT -0.10 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EP