4th & Data
EN ES
← Home
TB Away

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

HC Todd Bowles
@
LA Home

Los Angeles Rams

HC Sean McVay
Sunday 2025-11-23 · 20:20 SoFi Stadium, Inglewood US 🏟 Dome Spread 7.0 O/U 49.5

Win Probability

TB
31.0%
LA
69.0%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • LA offense: +0.138 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • Matthew Stafford (LA): +0.216 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • LA defense: -0.081 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • TB offense: +0.016 EPA/play over its last 8 games (17th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

TB 23
–
LA 28
Projected margin: LA by 5 Projected total: 51

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 12

TB

Haason Reddick LB Out Ankle
Jamel Dean CB Out Hip
Ben Bredeson G Out Hamstring
Bucky Irving RB Out Shoulder
Chris Godwin Jr. WR Questionable Fibula
Markees Watts LB Questionable Hand
Benjamin Morrison CB Questionable Hamstring

LA

Xavier Smith WR Questionable Concussion

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 12 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

TB 7
–
LA 34

Prediction missed by 22 pts on margin, 10 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 04:35 TD LA (4:35) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 17-D.Adams for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. TB 0 – LA 6
  • Q1 01:54 TD LA (1:54) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right intended for 88-C.Otton INTERCEPTED by 14-C.Durant at 50. 14-C.Durant for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 0 – LA 13
  • Q2 10:50 TD LA (10:50) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 84-C.Parkinson for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 0 – LA 20
  • Q2 05:08 TD TB (5:08) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle to 15-T.Johnson for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 6 – LA 21
  • Q2 03:15 TD LA (3:15) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep right to 17-D.Adams for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 7 – LA 27
  • Q2 01:06 FG LA (1:06) 92-H.Mevis 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-42-E.Evans. TB 7 – LA 31
  • Q4 13:40 FG LA (13:40) 92-H.Mevis 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-42-E.Evans. TB 7 – LA 34

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 TB 4th & 9 at the 43
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 55%

    (10:17) 9-R.Dixon punts 23 yards to LA 20, Center-86-E.Deckers, fair catch by 23-K.Williams.

  • Q1 TB 4th & 19 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (:55) 9-R.Dixon punts 46 yards to LA 28, Center-86-E.Deckers, fair catch by 23-K.Williams.

  • Q2 TB 4th & 2 at the 72
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 62%

    (1:43) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete short left to 17-S.Shepard (1-E.Forbes).

  • Q2 LA 4th & 3 at the 21
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EP
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 92%

    (1:06) 92-H.Mevis 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-42-E.Evans.

  • Q3 LA 4th & 4 at the 40
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 62%

    (13:02) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short right. PENALTY on LA-9-M.Stafford, Intentional Grounding, 12 yards, enforced at TB 40.

  • Q3 TB 4th & 6 at the 32
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 79%

    (9:31) (Shotgun) 10-T.Bridgewater pass short middle to 88-C.Otton to LA 19 for 13 yards (30-J.Wallace).

  • Q3 TB 4th & 9 at the 18
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 94%

    (7:53) (Shotgun) 10-T.Bridgewater sacked at LA 27 for -9 yards (91-K.Turner).

  • Q3 LA 4th & 8 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 42%

    (4:35) 42-E.Evans punts 40 yards to TB 8, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 19-K.Johnson.

  • Q3 TB 4th & 1 at the 83
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.29 EP
    p(convert) 74%

    (2:25) 9-R.Dixon punts 55 yards to LA 28, Center-86-E.Deckers. 23-K.Williams to LA 36 for 8 yards (32-J.Hayes).

  • Q4 LA 4th & 7 at the 34
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 75%

    (13:40) 92-H.Mevis 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-42-E.Evans.

  • Q4 TB 4th & 3 at the 13
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 96%

    (9:37) (Shotgun) 10-T.Bridgewater sacked at LA 25 for -12 yards (8-J.Verse).

  • Q4 LA 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.43 EP
    p(convert) 74%

    (7:19) 42-E.Evans punts 14 yards to LA 48, Center-44-J.McQuaide, out of bounds.

  • Q4 TB 4th & 7 at the 45
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 50%

    (5:33) 9-R.Dixon punts 45 yards to end zone, Center-86-E.Deckers, Touchback.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 8 at the 65 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (2:00) 42-E.Evans punts 51 yards to TB 14, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 19-K.Johnson to TB 29 for 15 yards (51-T.Reeder; 6-N.Hampton).