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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 4 at the 40

Los Angeles Rams 31 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7

What Actually Happened

(13:02) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short right. PENALTY on LA-9-M.Stafford, Intentional Grounding, 12 yards, enforced at TB 40.

The Three Options

GO +0.81 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.73 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 40, worth -2.07 EP
KICK -0.05 EP
  • 62% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.65 EP
  • 38% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.81 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model