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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 8 at the 48

Los Angeles Rams 31 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7

What Actually Happened

(4:35) 42-E.Evans punts 40 yards to TB 8, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 19-K.Johnson.

The Three Options

GO -0.28 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.36 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 48, worth -2.62 EP
KICK -0.83 EP
  • 42% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.78 EP
  • 58% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.70 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model