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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 1 at the 66

Los Angeles Rams 34 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7

What Actually Happened

(7:19) 42-E.Evans punts 14 yards to LA 48, Center-44-J.McQuaide, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.24 EP
Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.58 EP
  • 26% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 66, worth -3.62 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.19 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 24, worth -1.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.43 EP