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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 2 at the 14

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3 – Arizona Cardinals 0

What Actually Happened

(2:00) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle to 17-S.Shepard to ARI 9 for 5 yards (50-C.Simon; 3-B.Baker).

The Three Options

GO +2.65 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +5.07 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 14, worth -0.41 EP
KICK +1.62 EP
  • 96% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 24, worth -0.97 EP
PUNT -0.29 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model